Tags : Javier Milei, Argentina, far right, extremism, Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro, Giorgia Meloni,
Political scientists place the beginning of a new era of far-right populism that gave power to figures like Donald Trump in the US, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, and Giorgia Meloni in Italy in the Brexit referendum. The latest link in this chain is the victory of Javier Milei in Argentina. The economist, who identifies as an anarcho-capitalist, surprises not only with his radical proposals but also with his eccentric personality. Many still wonder how a candidate who uses a medium to communicate with his deceased dog from 2017—according to Juan Luis González in the unauthorized biography « The Madman, » a nickname he has carried since school—has managed to secure 55.6% of the votes. Perhaps answers can be found by revisiting the Brexit, as a recent study published in the journal Plos One suggests.
The study reveals a striking result: people who voted in favor of remaining in the European Union in 2016 had, on average, higher cognitive abilities. Cognitive abilities refer to mental processes used in information processing, such as memory, attention, language proficiency, orientation, or reasoning. Does this mean that those favoring the UK’s exit were less intelligent? The controversy would arise with such a simple and definitive conclusion for a complex and nuanced issue, but the research is genuinely interesting.
The authors, from the School of Management at the University of Bath in southwest England, explain that higher cognitive ability has previously been associated with the tendency to recognize and reject misinformation. This is crucial because many studies have shown that British voters received a significant amount of false information before going to the polls. While various socio-economic, sociodemographic, and psychological factors have been studied to understand voting patterns, these researchers explored the mental abilities of voters. To investigate, they analyzed data from 3,183 heterosexual couples in the UK collected as part of a broader study called Understanding Society. One of the tests participants underwent assessed their cognitive ability, measured by their performance in a series of tasks. The researchers observed whether there was any relationship between the results and the Brexit vote, concluding that there is a strong statistical link between higher cognitive ability and voting to remain in the EU.
In terms of numbers, only 40% of those with lower cognitive ability voted for remain, compared to 73% of those with higher skills. Additionally, there was a significant influence of the partner: individuals whose spouses had higher cognitive ability were also more likely to have voted against the UK’s exit. However, when both partners disagreed, having higher mental abilities than the cohabiting person was associated with an even greater probability of voting in favor of remaining in the EU. How can such clear statistical results be explained? The authors suggest that misinformation about the referendum may have complicated decision-making for people with lower cognitive abilities. These voters would be « more susceptible to misinformation and disinformation, » they claim. In general, those with lower analytical thinking skills find it « more difficult to detect and dismiss this type of information. »
The question is whether these results regarding the Brexit referendum can be extrapolated to other electoral processes, including the recent Argentine elections. Chris Dawson, the lead author of the study, acknowledges that each country has specific circumstances that could affect controversial votes. For example, « in the Argentine elections, the state of the economy was an important factor, » he notes. However, in the absence of a specific study of the particular case, if there are sectors involved « responsible for circulating larger amounts of misinformation, » he explains, « then this could, as in our analysis, affect the decision-making of those with lower cognitive ability. » Like in many other recent elections, misinformation has been prevalent in the Argentine presidential elections, as reported by various media outlets and fact-checking portals. For instance, false information about overseas voting was widely spread both in the first round and the final election last Sunday, along with widespread misinformation about potential electoral fraud related to ballots and alleged messages from candidates that were never issued. Personal attacks have been constant throughout the process: while a medical history attributed schizophrenia to Milei, a fake video accused Peronist Sergio Massa of receiving a bag of cocaine.
« As we observed in our study, low cognitive ability is also related to more antagonistic messages, » explains the University of Bath researcher. « And with less confidence in experts who may be relevant to the Argentine vote. » Some of the new president’s flagship proposals, such as dollarizing the economy, have been criticized by experts for the complexity of implementation or potential consequences, but these analyses don’t seem to have affected Milei’s followers.
The « vulnerability » of the voter
Chris Dawson sees parallels between his study on Brexit, the Argentine elections, and other votes but believes that this line of research needs to be expanded, especially regarding significant referendums, both past and present or future. « We hope people take note of the results of our research, » he says. « The media has always spread misleading information, but the rise of social media and the internet has drastically increased the scale and accessibility of misinformation and increasingly polarized messages, » the expert comments. Although measures are being taken by social media and the media, he recognizes that when political action is based on misinformation and the inability of those with lower abilities to detect and dismiss it, « the democratic process is undermined. » This is where the key idea of his work comes in, which is the « individual vulnerability to misinformation. » In this sense, after closely following the pre-Brexit referendum debate, « it seemed clear to us that much information provided to the public was contradictory, false, and often fraudulent, » but it had to be determined whether voters’ cognitive abilities could be a relevant factor for these messages to resonate. However, the University of Bath researcher is aware that there may be a strong temptation to misinterpret their results. If those who voted against Brexit have higher cognitive abilities, does this mean their choice is more intelligent? Dawson completely rejects that conclusion because it involves mixing different concepts and drawing conclusions beyond what the data allows. « Our results say very little about what differences in cognitive ability may or may not exist between two random voters, » he comments, so Britons who voted to remain in the EU have no reason to « boast » about it. In fact, among those in favor of Brexit, there is also a segment with higher-than-average abilities. « What our results do imply is that misinformation about the referendum may have complicated decision-making, especially for people with lower cognitive ability, » he clarifies.
El Confidencial, 22/11/2023
#Brexit #vote #Javier #Milei #Bolsonaro #Trump #Meloni